covid diary Sunday 5th April 2020- Lockdown Day 11

A stunning morning, taken with YAWcam.
I went for awalk down Lyall Bay and chatted with Rick down there. His van was written off by insurance (He'd hit a dear when on West Coast South Island). A few people out walking. No swimming or surfing

someone mentioned the Google Mobility Report 

 The data is from people who have their location turned on on their mobile devices. This tracks frequency of

I looked at quite a few countries and all seemed to be the same, everything trending downwards, except Sweden, they've all gone to the Parks, theirs being a different strategy. Hopefully weather good over there for camping.

From an article in Forbes on 2nd Feb 

According to the Centers for Disease Control, 90% of deaths due to influenza occur among people 65 years old and older. Of the 61,099 flu-related deaths in the United States 2017-2018 season, 50,903 people were 65-plus. Fatality ratios related to SARS in 2002-2003 for people 60 years and older are estimated to range, depending on the country, from 50% to over 80%. As of this writing, reported deaths due to the Wuhan Novel Coronavirus total 427 people – the majority of whom are over 60 years old. 

So following this I found this article, from WHO 2017 study :

Up to 650 000 deaths annually are associated with respiratory diseases from seasonal influenza, according to new estimates by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US-CDC), the World Health Organization and global health partners.

This marks an increase on the previous global estimate of 250 000 – 500 000, which dates from over ten years ago and covered all influenza-related deaths, including cardiovascular disease or diabetes. The new figures of 290 000 – 650 000 deaths are based on more recent data from a larger, more diverse group of countries, including lower middle income countries, and exclude deaths from non-respiratory diseases.
 According to US-CDC, most deaths occur among people aged over 75 years, and in the world’s poorest regions. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the world’s greatest flu mortality risk, followed closely by the Eastern Mediterranean and Southeast Asia.
“All countries, rich and poor, large and small, must work together to control influenza outbreaks before the arrival of the next pandemic. This includes building capacity to detect and respond to outbreaks, and strengthening health systems to improve the health of the most vulnerable and those most at risk,” said Dr Salama.
Nearly all deaths among children under five with influenza-related lower respiratory tract infections occur in developing countries, but the effects of seasonal influenza epidemics on the world’s poorest are not fully known.

Another article says:
The common flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organization 
In the US:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that so far this season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses for the 2019-2020 season, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S. The CDC reports there have been 54 reported flu-related pediatric deaths this season from Influenza B viruses. (The Hill)

 Seasonal Flu deaths in US & Covid

 In the US & northern hemisphere the season for the flu is wintertime:

 So the number of flu cases should be on the decline. So from its height it is now in decline at week 13 on the map. So Covid seems to be kicking in after the flu season and numbers rising. So is it non seasonal.

 

So 300,000 current covid cases in US is a drop in the bucket compared to seasonal flu. And deaths of 8,200 for flu this season.
Since the line shows about 22 weeks of flu season, then that equates to about 373 deaths /week or about 53 deaths per day. But that is an average, the actual deaths will be on a sort of bell curve so few at beginning then later rising and then falling off at end.
Cumulatively there have been over 8,400 deaths from Covid to date, from March 22 there were 80 daily deaths and they have been rising to over 1100 on 4th April
So covid has exceeded the Seasonal flue deaths in 14 days, 2 weeks. And cases are still rising.

Cumulatively there have been over 8,400 deaths from Covid to date, from March 22 there were 80 daily deaths and they have been rising to over 1100 on 4th April
So covid has exceeded the Seasonal flue deaths in 14 days, 2 weeks. And cases are still rising.