covid diary Sunday 29th March 2020- Lockdown Day 4

Day 4 lockdown. Weather awful.

Dense Urban centres

There was an article about difference in infection rates in New York and Los Angeles. NY massive as very dense, high rise so people using lifts and small paces with surfaces to touch etc and public transport. LA more open, less dense and people use own trasport. So infection not being transmitted as quickly, that is not to say infection cases wont be as large in LA, but not as rapidly.
So dense urban areas, like london, Delhi, Kolcutta etc will be faster for transmission, so Singapore & Hong Kong should be  a great places for spread but they seem to have it under control.
When Covid-19 came around, Singapore was, it seems, ready. Along with Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea,
They dealt with SARS and H1N1 Swine flu so were prepared. Interesting.

Taiwan's response impressive

 For the past 5 weeks (January 20-February 24), the CECC has rapidly produced and implemented a list of at least 124 action items (eTable in the Supplement) including border control from the air and sea, case identification (using new data and technology), quarantine of suspicious cases, proactive case finding, resource allocation (assessing and managing capacity), reassurance and education of the public while fighting misinformation, negotiation with other countries and regions, formulation of policies toward schools and childcare, and relief to businesses.
 Face masks at .20c and available to public, fines for profiteering. Being so connected to Mainand China they were prepared from SARS and other infections.

Herd infection & Covid Transmission

There was an article about Sweden that is having a relaxed approach to the infection, schools a businesses still running. A more spread out country with only one major population centre. Their attitude is for herd infection, once the infection/recovery rate gets over 80%  to 90% then its hard for a 2nd or 3rd wave of infections to spread as there are more people who are immune, so infection transmission harder to move in pop that has a lot of people resistant to it.

According to DeFelice, the virus that causes the disease appears to have a reproductive number of around 2.5, meaning every person who contracts the virus will pass it on to roughly 2.5 people. For the outbreak to peak, we need to bring that down to fewer than 1. Once 60 to 70 percent of the population has developed immunity to COVID-19, we will "begin to see" herd immunity, as people become less susceptible to infection and the outbreak dies down.

US taking off with infections

Cases still rising but US is getting a lot more , US rate of change is massive compared to ther countries

Stormy southerly here. A real downpour in the morning and my gutter was overflowing. Unfortunately my ladder was with Zoe so I had to improvise. A big lump of dirt blocking the outlet. This side of roof (West) is usually fine but with dry summer lots of dirt must have blown onto roof.
Also washed the west facing windows as I was wet and outside.
Afternoon weather cleared and lots and lots of people all getting out for a walk. I suppose they were waiting for the weather to turn. A mass exodus.